Friday, June 4, 2010

Hope seen for commercial real estate

A University of St. Thomas survey of 50 commercial real estate experts in the Twin Cities shows that they expect a slow turnaround in the battered sector.

The school's Minnesota Commercial Real Estate Survey released Thursday had a composite index of 53.5. The midpoint of 50 is neutral, so the results tilted positive, indicating future growth.

"We're basically trying to find out their outlook for the next two years because we think they'll make decisions based on their own outlook," said Herb Tousley, director of real estate programs at the University of St. Thomas.

Experts indicated through survey results that they expect Twin Cities rental rates and occupancy rates to increase in the next two years. The index for occupancy was 69.4; the index for rental rates was 60.2.

The survey results showed that they also think land prices and building materials will rise from today's historic lows. The indexes for land prices and the cost of building materials were 42.9 and 33.7, respectively, indicating a more negative outlook.

"If land prices and building prices go up, that could temper things a little, but I don't think that'll be a huge drag on it," Tousley said.

The survey consists of six questions about the future of office, retail and industrial properties between now and 2012. Each question has a value from 0 to 100.

Since this is the school's first survey, it'll provide a benchmark for future surveys. Surveys will be conducted twice a year, in

the spring and fall.
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