Think housing is recovering? Think again.

(Fortune) -- Americans purchased homes at a surprising clip in April, but don't let that fool you into thinking the housing market is back.

Although economists were expecting a month-over-month increase of 5.5%, the National Association of Realtors reported yesterday that sales of previously owned homes rose an unexpected 7.6%. That continued a yearlong rise in housing activity and marked the highest number of sales recorded since November of last year.

It also follows a drumbeat of similarly rosy economic news signaling the possibility that the United States may be on the economic mend. Government spending has helped spur factory production. A rising stock market and an improving job market have led to greater consumer optimism, which has stimulated spending. Further reports on housing and durable goods orders, due out later this week, will likely give consumers even more reason to feel confident that a recovery is at hand.

But prospective home buyers, particularly those tempted to think of real estate as an investment again, should tread with caution. One critical obstacle to a housing recovery remains intact: supply. Until the number of empty homes starts to shrink, prices could still fall further.

Moreover, notes Joseph Foudy, a professor of economics and management at NYU's Stern School of Business, we're coming off of an artificial bump from the first time home buyer credit, which expired last month. He predicts the second half of this year will see sluggish economic growth and that housing prices, at best, will be flat for the next few months, while commercial real estate "is likely to see significant declines."

Government life support

Indeed, first-time buyers accounted for nearly half of the homes purchased in April. Buying has also been spurred by historically low mortgage rates, which have been kept modest by the Federal Reserve's recently expired $1.25 trillion mortgage-securities purchase program and by lenient lending standards at the Federal Housing Administration (FHA). In all, the US government, through Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500), Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) and the FHA, underpins about 95% of the mortgage market. "This is a market purely on life support, sustained by the federal government," noted FHA's head, David Stevens, at the Mortgage Bankers Association conference yesterday. His agency is tightening lending -- which could take more buyers out of the market.

Optimists are pinning their hopes on a continuation of low mortgage rates. They note that rates could remain low because of concerns that debt problems in Europe portend a wider slowdown. Low rates help to reinforce demand. But even if these optimists are right, low rates only have so much of an effect. Despite the average 30-year rates now hovering around 4.8%, the Mortgage Bankers Association noted last week that the number of people seeking mortgage purchase applications had dropped more than 27%, reaching a level last seen in May 1997.


More importantly, what underpins those low rates also matters. Housing prices are unlikely to rise if unemployment does, or if incomes stay stagnant. And concerns in Europe could end up destabilizing housing prices further, which would dent consumer confidence -- not a good cycle to begin a recovery.

Also, an unintended consequence of the European debt crisis is that Libor, the benchmark borrowing rate that banks charge each other, has been on the rise, with Citigroup saying recently that it could end up a full percentage point higher within the next few months.

That would be bad news for the real estate market in a number of ways. Libor sets the rate for about $370 trillion in debt-related financing worldwide, including a host of consumer credit cards, home equity lines, student and small business loans, and adjustable-rate mortgages, as well as derivatives, such as credit swaps. A rise in Libor would mean higher rates on adjustable-rate mortgages. More importantly, it could raise the debt load of already-strapped consumers, reducing spending and further increasing mortgage delinquencies.

And delinquencies already account for more than 10% of all mortgages. These defaults aren't just on subprime ARMS anymore either, with prime fixed-rate loans now representing 37% of all delinquent loans. Moody's forecasts about 1.9 million homes will be taken from their owners this year, with a little over a million more going back to the banks in 2011. These can be added to the 6.3 million vacant homes currently sitting idle across America.

Many defaults have yet to be figured into the housing market because banks are sitting on them or they are being held back due to government programs like the federal Home Affordable Modification Program. LPS Applied Analytics has estimated that banks currently have about 1.1 million foreclosed homes in their inventory and that another 4.8 million mortgages are likely to end in foreclosure. At some point these homes will go on the market, further depressing prices.

But they won't be alone. Regular sellers have been coming out of the woodwork. NAR reported that the number of previously-owned homes placed on the market has risen quickly (reaching more than 4 million now) and that this inventory continues to far outpace the number whittled away through sales. The additional inventory is not a "healthy" development, said their chief economist, Lawrence Yun.

And it's just going to get worse. As analysts at Zillow noted last week, U.S. homeowners are so confident in the value of their homes that many of them plan to put up for-sale signs in their front yards. Zillow said that 7% of homeowners they polled were "very likely" to try to sell their homes in the next twelve months if the housing market seemed to be improving.

If 7% of all homeowners hit the market, that would equal about 5.3 million homes, more than the number of existing homes that sold all of last year. That's a lot of housing. Buyer beware.

After foreclosure: How long until you can buy again?

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Walking away from a mortgage you can still afford to pay has consequences; everyone knows that. Your credit score is shot and it can be impossible to get credit.

Some homeowners, no doubt, believe that the credit score hit is worth getting out from a deeply underwater mortgage. They may owe, say, $500,000 when their house value is only valued at $350,000. And, they figure, there's no way it will ever be worth what they owe so it's better to get out from underneath the burden.



After default, they reason, they can raise their FICO scores by paying all their bills on time and eventually finance another home purchase.

Don't count on it.

While homeowners who default due to economic hardship, such as a job loss or divorce, normally must wait two to five years before buying a home again, walkaways may face double that time.

"It could be well over seven or eight years before [walkaways] are able to obtain a mortgage to buy a home again," said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association.

How foreclosure impacts your credit score
"Credit scores are only one component of a complete credit decision," Brinkmann said. "[In these cases] credit scores are not a good indicator of their willingness to continue to pay their mortgage."

But future underwriters will scrutinize their records very closely, and if they find no precipitating factors leading to the defaults -- no job loss, no health issues --the repaired credit score won't overshadow the black mark of a walkaway.

"If you made a strategic decision to default on paying your mortgage, it will work against you," said Bill Merrell of the National Association of Review Appraisers and Mortgage Underwriters.

Merrell, who teaches underwriting, said banks are looking at several factors in determining whether to grant mortgages: the amount of money borrowers have in the bank; employment histories; payment history.


However, banks may be far more lenient if the default resulted from factors somewhat beyond the borrower's control, such as from local economic problems. "They'll give you more consideration if it's job related," he said. But, he added, banks look at strategic defaults "very negatively."

That said, it's not impossible to get a loan. Banks still want to make interest payments, so they might be willing to gamble with a walkaway.

"It might be a little more difficult for them to borrow, but [banks'] drive for market share -- to profit from making loans -- will trump that caution," said Keith Gumbinger, of the mortgage information publisher HSH Associates. "I don't think we'll see a full denial."

It's hard to foresee the state of mortgage lending six or seven months from now, let alone seven or eight years into the future. So lenders may look at applications from one-time strategic defaulters and say, "Yes, they walked away but it's a whole different market now," according to Gumbinger.

Even so, lenders may require more from borrowers who walked away than those who didn't.

"To the extent they could get a mortgage," said Brinkmann, "they can count on needing a heavy down payment."

The lenders may ask for 30% down or more. That would provide enough collateral cushion that the bank could get all or most of its money back in a foreclosure.

The Housing Market - Where We Stand Now

After a few years of depressing information out of the U.S. housing market, this month’s data continues to be mixed. Is recovery truly in the works? Here’s what the numbers say:
Foreclosures

According to numbers from real estate data firm RealtyTrac, foreclosures in January were down, the second consecutive monthly drop. The national foreclosure rate fell to one in every 409 U.S. households, representing a ten percent decline from December.

RealtyTrac’s executive was not convinced this is a true sign of recovery though.

"January foreclosure numbers are exhibiting a pattern very similar to a year ago: a double-digit percentage jump in December foreclosure activity followed by a ten percent drop in January," James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac, said in a statement.

"If history repeats itself we will see a surge in the numbers over the next few months as lenders foreclose on delinquent loans where neither the existing loan modification programs or the new short sale and deed-in-lieu of foreclosure alternatives works," he said.

The states still getting hit hardest by foreclosures are Nevada, Arizona, California, Florida, Utah, Idaho, Michigan, Illinois, Oregon, and Georgia.
Home Sales

Existing home sales were down again in January, falling 7.2 percent from December, based on data from the National Association of Realtors. According to the Census Bureau, new home sales hit an all-time record low in January, plummeting 11.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 309,000 units. That is the lowest rate of sales on record. Foreclosed homes and short sales continue to attract more buyers than the higher prices of new homes.
Fannie Mae

The government-sponsored entity, which has been under government control since September 2008, recently announced it will need another $15.3 billion in bail out money from taxpayers. Fannie Mae, one of the largest mortgage finance companies in the country, had $216.5 billion worth of non-performing, toxic loans on its books as of December and just reported total 2009 losses of $74.4 billion dollars. Fannie and Freddie Mac, the other mortgage GSE , have been instruments in getting bad loans out of the investment markets, but apparently couldn’t take on the nation’s problems without eventually dealing with them as well.
Interest Rates

Mortgage rates stayed low for the entire month of February, but there is plenty of talk as to what will happen after the Federal Reserve stops buying up mortgage-backed securities at the end of March. Most say the laws of supply and demand suggest rates will rise, perhaps by a half to a full percent. Yet, based on recent statements by officials, there is reason to believe the Fed and the Obama Administration are perfectly willing and ready to step back in to aid the housing market if rates do start to rise, which would in turn bring lower rates again.

While no one is ready to say the housing market is back to normal, things are at least better than they have been during some periods over the past two years. The question is whether they will continue to improve or head south again.

More homeowners turn to mediation after foreclosure

By Jeff Schweers, USA TODAY
PORT ST. JOHN, Fla. — When Mark Weeks was laid off from his $90,000-a-year construction job 2½ years ago,he vowed to hang onto his family's house here, where he'd lived with his wife, their three children and two dogs for the last six years.

But his new job as a safety officer for a Cocoa, Fla., crane rental company barely paid a third of what he used to make, and he wound up unable to pay his mortgage. At first, he tried, unsuccessfully, to get mortgage-holder Wells Fargo to defer or lower his payments.

Wells Fargo filed foreclosure proceedings in December, when Weeks was six months behind on his payments. Weeks hired a lawyer to fight it and move the case to a court-appointed mediator — which he sees as the best last hope for getting Wells Fargo to agree to lower his monthly payments.
All foreclosures on primary residences in Florida automatically go to mediation."We just want them to work with us because we can't make it right now," Weeks said. "We weren't asking them to give us a home for free."

Teri Schrettenbrunner, head of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage Communication, said the bank is committed to helping homeowners facing true financial hardship stay in their homes they can afford, but, as is the case with all lending institutions, it has to honor the terms of its contract with the investors. "We are bound by the contracts we have with ... whoever owns the loan on the back end to do what they find acceptable in modification," Schrettenbrunner said.

Millions of working and middle-class homeowners are facing a similar predicament. An estimated 10% of all home loans are delinquent by 60 days or more, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported this month.In Florida and Nevada, two of the states where the housing crisis has hit hardest, the rate was over 20%, the MBA said.

Court-ordered mediation may be the best last option for thousands of homeowners in the foreclosure pipeline, as programs targeting the estimated 6 million delinquent home loans have been slow to put a dent in the crisis.

"Foreclosure mediations hold out the hope of removing major obstacles that have hindered efforts to slow the spread of the foreclosure epidemic," says Geoff Walsh, a staff attorney specializing in housing, foreclosure and bankruptcy issues for the National Consumer Law Center (NCLC) in Washington, D.C.

The Home Affordable Modification Program, President Obama's $75 billion initiative to prevent foreclosures begun last March, has granted 300,000 permanent modifications through April, according to the program's latest report, released May 17. The report also estimates 3.275 million delinquent loans are eligible for the program.

In addition, HOPE NOW, an alliance of 38 private lenders started in 2007, reported in April that 2.9 million permanent home loan modifications had been offered since the program began.

While foreclosure starts dropped 5% in the past year, the number of home loans that were delinquent by 60 days or more increased 40%, from 2.85 million to 3.99 million, says Faith Schwartz, executive director at HOPE NOW.

The biggest hurdle to getting a loan modified has been getting the loan servicer or lender to actually sit down and negotiate with the homeowner, says Sean DeVries, an Orlando-based loan workout specialist.

"There is no established path to get a good, sustainable modification," he says, noting that he went through nine fax numbers for a recent SunTrust client.

Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., introduced legislation in December that would require any lender receiving federal insurance to go into mediation. It has been assigned to a committee, but no further action has been taken.

Many states have already passed similar measures.

"It's been very mixed, because it depends on the way the state mediation program is set up," says Walsh.

NCLC looked at 12 new or pending state statutes, he says, and "The range is incredible." Some require nothing more than the servicer checking a box on a form that says they attempted to contact the borrower. Others require servicers to show on paper their calculations comparing what they'd lose by foreclosing on a house vs. modifying the loan, he says.

"That gives the homeowner the basis for challenging whether it's a reasonable foreclosure," he says.

According to a January NCLC report:

•The Nevada Assembly approved a mediation program that took effect July 1, allowing homeowners to request mediation on non-judicial foreclosures and appointing more than 150 mediators for the program. It requires the servicer to produce several documents, including evidence that it has the right to sue and documents showing how they calculated eligibility for a loan modification.

•Maine started a foreclosure diversion program in January, setting guidelines for scheduling sessions, granting stays of proceedings and determining good-faith participation. It also authorizes sanctions on the lenders if they don't follow the newly imposed rules, including dismissal of the lawsuit.

•The New York Legislature in November amended its mandatory settlement conference law "to include all foreclosures of loans secured by borrowers' residences."

It also requires the lender to bring documents to the conferences, including payment history and itemization of the amounts needed to catch up on and pay off the loan.

Florida is consistently in the top five states for foreclosure filings, with 350,000 a year. The Florida Supreme Court issued an administrative order in December requiring all its 20 circuit courts to adopt rules for mandatory mediation on all residential foreclosures, based on a task force's recommendations.

The 18th Circuit Court in Brevard County, Fla., made mediation mandatory in March 2009, before the state Supreme Court's order. In the ensuing 12 months, 59 of the 317 cases referred to mediation have reached a modified loan payment plan, said Ollie Lyons, the manager of the mediation program there.

HOUSING MARKET: Track the rise, fall and ... rebound?
CLOSE TO HOME: Real estate markets across the USA

"The main thing we've done is, people are able to sit down at the table and actually talk to other people," she said.

But it's stressful, she said. The state hasn't added money to the mediation programs, and there are not a lot of mediators for the overwhelming number of foreclosures, she said. "I am overwhelmed and burned out, like all mediation supervisors," Lyons said.

Eric Hammonds, a Fort Lauderdale attorney representing Weeks, said mediation forces the lenders to the table. "That's a good thing, because what happens in mediation (is) we get the actual contact person."

Experts see underlying weakness in housing

By Bill Briggs
msnbc.com contributor
updated 11:08 a.m. ET May 26, 2010

The housing market had a spring fling with buyers hoping to find bargains using the now-expired government tax credits and record low interest rates.

Now it's back to reality.

The sweet sales pace of March and April, many experts agree, will sour by mid-summer, and the national housing downturn has not yet ebbed.

“Anyone expecting a robust rebound in the housing market ... will be sorely disappointed,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist for the online real estate database Zillow.com.

Although sales of existing homes and new homes rose for two straight months in March and April, values are still weakening, according to the widely watched Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index reported Tuesday.

Case-Shiller’s composite of 20 U.S. cities found a “renewed weakness” in housing prices amid climbing foreclosure rates and the end of the tax incentives.

“The correction is definitely not over,” said Benjamin D. Clark, a Salt Lake City broker and president of the National Association of Exclusive Buyer Agents.

Spring sales have been boosted by historically low interest rates and a federal tax incentive that was worth up to $8,000 for home buyers who signed purchase agreements by April 30.

Sales of existing homes rose 7.6 percent in April on top of a 7 percent increase in March, according to the National Association of Realtors, which touted “a return of buyer confidence with stabilizing home prices.”

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that sales of new single-family homes jumped 14.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000 units. That was after a 29.8 percent surge in March, the biggest monthly increase in 47 years.

But Clark said many agents believe the federal tax credit “merely postponed, delayed, or softened a meaningful and inevitable correction.”

“I don't know if low interest rates alone will keep existing home sales on the upswing,” he said.

Under the federal incentive, first-time home buyers got an $8,000 tax credit and repeat home buyers got a $6,500 credit for home purchases in which binding sales contracts were signed by April 30. (Qualified buyers have until June 30 to complete their purchases.)

Clark said some agents believe the looming expiration of the tax credit merely pulled some business forward.

Indeed, a recent report by the Mortgage Bankers Association indicated that cheap loan rates — tamped even lower by concerns over Europe’s economy — have not filled the void left by the tax incentives. Mortgage applications for home purchases fell 27 percent in the week ended May 14 to the lowest level since May 1997.

Still, the happy vapors of the tax incentives will, on paper, continue to inflate home-sale stats nationally for the next five weeks, analysts said. That’s because many of the homes that went under contract in April had closings scheduled for May and June.

“We’re expecting a barn-buster June in our closings,” said Ted C. Jones, senior vice president and chief economist at the Houston-based Stewart Title Guaranty Company. “In fact, we had an internal memo go out saying no one can take vacations in June.”

Mortgage rates fall to lowest level of the year

Turmoil in the stock market and the European debt crisis are making life easier for American homebuyers and families looking to refinance: Mortgage rates are inching closer to a record low.

The window of opportunity may close soon. Home loan rates will rise if investors grow more confident and shift money out of the safety of government bonds, which influence mortgage rates.

For now, though, rates are tantalizingly low. The average 30-year fixed-rate loan sank to 4.78 percent this week, the lowest this year and barely above the record of 4.71 percent set in December. And 15-year loans are at their lowest rates in two decades.

"Strike now," suggested Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

Some homeowners are doing just that. Applications to refinance surged this week to the highest level in seven months, the Mortgage Bankers Association said.

Anxiety over the European crisis has caused global investors to snap up Treasury bonds, which they view as much safer than other investments. Treasury yields have fallen as a result, taking mortgage rates down, too.

When the crisis eases, and especially if the American economy recovery stays on track, expect investors to move out of bonds and back into stocks. That would make mortgages more expensive.

"If the economy finally really shows sustained improvement, rates are definitely going to go up," said Fred Chamberlin, a consultant with Alpine Mortgage Planning in Eugene, Ore.

He suggests that homeowners looking to refinance move fast and not hold out for even lower rates. "If you want the bottom, the only way you're going to know it is when you've missed it," Chamberlin said.

As cheap as mortgages are these days, the number of loans being taken out to buy homes remains at its lowest point in more than 13 years. One reason is that a special tax credit for homebuyers expired last month. Many people had rushed to sign contracts by then.

Another obstacle: trouble qualifying for a mortgage. Borrowers need solid credit and a down payment of at least 3.5 percent. Banks tightened lending standards after millions of borrowers fell into default and foreclosure during the housing bust.

"They're really looking with a magnifying glass," said Steve Mevorah, a loan officer with Icon Mortgage Inc. in Las Vegas. "They're trying to make sure that they are flawless loans."

Analysts had expected mortgage rates to rise when the government ended a program designed to bolster the housing market. Instead, they fell because of fears that Greece would default on its debt.

Also keeping rates low is the government's decision last year to provide unlimited support through 2012 for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, which buy mortgages and package them into securities and help keep rates low.


Investors "are very comfortable with the guarantee that is in place," notes Credit Suisse mortgage strategist Mahesh Swaminathan. "That, for all practical purposes, is very strong government support."

Since the financial crisis ended, mortgages of all types have become more affordable — from the 30-year fixed to adjustable varieties.

The premium that borrowers pay to take out "jumbo" loans for more expensive homes has dropped by a full percentage point since late 2008, to just 0.8 percent, for instance.

Home construction up, building permits fall

WASHINGTON - Construction of homes surged in April to the highest level in 18 months, fueled by buyers capitalizing on an expiring tax credit. Permits for new construction sank, signaling the rebound could fade.

Low mortgage rates and two tax credits — up to $8,000 for new buyers and $6,500 for current owners who buy and move into another home — have boosted home sales this year. To receive a tax credit, borrowers had to have a signed offer by April 30 and must close the deal by the end of June.

The rate of home building has now risen more than 40 percent from the bottom in April 2009, though it's still down 70 percent from the decade's peak in January 2006.
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Without the tax credit, analysts say home sales will slow in the second half of this year. High unemployment and tight lending standards will likely help keep many buyers away.

The report Tuesday from the Commerce Department said the rate of construction of single-family homes and apartment buildings rose 5.8 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 672,000. That was up from an upwardly revised March level of 635,000. The rate, the highest since October 2008, was driven by a 10 percent increase in single-family home building.

A separate report Tuesday showed wholesale inflation remains tame. Prices fell 0.1 percent in April, the second drop in three months. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, rose 0.2 percent, the Labor Department said. But over the past year, core prices are up just 1 percent.

The absence of inflation pressures means the Federal Reserve can keep interest rates at record lows to bolster the economic recovery.

In the Commerce report, the government said building permits, a gauge of future activity, sank 11.5 percent to an annual rate of 606,000. That's the lowest point since October 2009.

Still, a survey Monday showed homebuilders are feeling more optimistic. The National Association of Home Builders said its housing market index, which tracks industry confidence, rose three points this month to 22, the highest reading since August 2007. Readings below 50 indicate negative sentiment.

In March, sales of new homes rose 27 percent in March. That was the biggest monthly increase in 47 years.

A four-decade low stockpile of new single-family homes, combined with low interest rates and prices, has made home buying affordable, said Sal Guatieri, an economist with BMO Capital Markets. That means that even without the tax credits, housing starts should rise modestly.

"Until the foreclosure wave ebbs and the overhang of unsold existing homes abates, the recovery in homebuilding will be subdued, Guatieri said.

For April, food costs dipped by 0.2 percent. It was the first decline in nine months. And it came after a 2.4 percent surge during the previous month — the largest gain in 26 years. The March increase reflected the impact of a winter freeze in Florida that damaged citrus and vegetable crops.

Energy prices fell 0.8 percent in April with gasoline prices down 2.7 percent.

The rise in core inflation followed two straight months of 0.1 percent gains. Household appliances posted a 1.9 percent jump, the largest since October 1974. Passenger car prices rose 0.6 percent. It was the biggest such increase since June.

Economists predict a report on consumer prices on Wednesday will also show slight price pressures. They are predicting overall prices and core inflation will both post 0.1 percent gains.

The recession has banished inflation for now. The more than 8 million jobs lost over the past two years has left workers without the bargaining power to boost wages.

In addition, companies, facing slack demand and idle plant capacity, have lacked the ability to raise prices.